21 years ago, in July 2004, Greece were crowned as EURO champions after beating hosts Portugal. One of football's best ever stories. However, the Greeks have not reached those heights again, neither in club football nor in international tournaments. Their best result in an international tournament since that day in Lisbon was a quarterfinal loss against Germany (4-2) in the '12 EURO in Poland & Ukraine EURO '12. In fact, they haven't played in a international tournament since 2014.
Greece's EURO winning squad was not able to capitaliza on that success in the following years and both country and the national team descended into a profound state of anonymity which has lasted for 20 years. The turning point of this period of hibernation — or the starting point of their resurgence — came with their recent victory over Scotland in the promotion play-off to Division A of the Nations League.
The Greeks visited Hampden Park with the obligation of overturning a one-goal deficit from the first leg against Scotland. To do so, Ivan Jovanovic, the coach since 2024, fielded a starting XI in which 8 of the 11 players were under 23 years old. Among these eight were Karetsas (17) and Mouzakitis (18): one is still underage, and the other only recently turned 18. In total, a team with an average age of 22.7 years.
Although Greece's potential looks massive with all these shiny, young players, those 20 years the country spent in anonymity still loom large over a national team boasts only three players from the top five leagues in its starting XI: Konstantinos Koulierakis (Wolfsburg), Konstantinos Mavropanos (West Ham United) y Dimitrios Giannoulis (Ausburg). Three of Greece's four-at-the-back defense at Hampden Park. Among those playing in Europe's top five leagues we should also count Liverpool's Kostas Tsimikas. However, Jovanovic decided that Giannoulis (29 and the oldest player in that day Greece's XI) would be their starting left-back.
The rest of the starting XI players are spread across leagues in countries such as Portugal (1), the Czech Republic (1), Belgium (2), and the Greek Super League (4).
Against Scotland, Greece showcased all their potential, which was beautifully exemplified by their second goal of the day, as most of the young, up-and-coming players were involved in it. First of all was Christos Mouzakitis (18) receiving in a near-wide position, turning and playing a through ball to his left-back, who's charging up.
Left-back and Tsimikas replacement, Dimitrios Giannoulis received on the left edge of the box and delivered a cut-back for the arriving Konstantelias (22).
After controlling the ball, Konstantelias quickly left it to Karetsas (17).
Then Karetsas, the youngest and most promising player of that Greek team, did what only top players could do: placing it into thetop-right corner with a first-time shot to score Greece's second of the night.
As we said, some of the most promising Greek players took part in this goal. Now that we know Greece's national team reality, it's time to meet the players that are giving the county hope again.
Midfielders: Christos Mouzakitis (18) and Christos Zafeiris (22)
Several names stood out in the Olympiacos youth team that beat AC Milan 3–0 in the Youth League final. But none more than Christos Mouzakitis. The player who scored the opening goal in that game had, before this was published, already played 1,368 minutes in the Greek Super League. Mouzakitis is a average-sized central midfielder with good change of pace and dancing hips to turn around. He's almost always played alongside a more experienced partner in José Luis Mendilibar’s double pivot at Olympiacos.
The Greek midfielder is a very adventurous one. At his age he's not yet the main main in Olympiacos' midfield meaning that he drift in and out of games. He's not yet the most consistent midfielder and he can have anonymous spells during games — this is after all, he's first ever professional season.
However, his potential is clear. Among all 50 midfielder with over 600' played in the Greek Super League, Mouzakitis he ranks tenth in entries in the opposition box (passes or carries ending in the opp. box) averaging 1.21 per game. As a result, he's often involved in attacking sequences.
Our xGChain metric (or xG involvement) measures how much a player contributes to dangerous attacking sequences. For instance, if a 15-pass move involving Mouzakitis ends in a shot worth 0.2 xG, he is credited with 0.2 xG. In short, it reflects the total xG a player is involved in.
On the other hand, there's xG Build Up. It works similarly to xGChain but excludes the final two actions of a move (the assist and the shot itself). This allows us to focus on the players who contribute to the build-up phase rather than those involved in finishing the play.
Then... well, Mouzakitis is heavily involved in both. His involvement in Olympiacos xG generation is huge. Look at this graph.
The Greek midfielder is involved in every phase of play: he helps his team progress up the pitch and also plays an active role in the creation of chances. He's a dual-profile player—unlike others who tend to focus either on progression or on contributing to xG generation. And he’s doing all this at just 18 years of age.
Against Scotland, Mouzakitis was paired in midfield with Slavia Praha's Christos Zafeiris. Born to both Norwegian and Greek backgrounds, Zafeiris represented the Nordic country at various youth levels but has already earned five caps for the Hellenic Eagles. At just 23, that number will only grow. He's a well-rounded midfielder.
If we look at his performance this season through the lens of our Arrigo metrics, we see a player who leaves nothing on the table:
Only three midfielders in the Czech league complete more passes under strong pressure than Zafeiris. And only two attempt these types of passes more frequently. On the defensive side of these situations, he stands out as well: he averages the 20th-most on ball-pressures and the 16th-most strong on-ball pressures per game. His success rate stands at 37.8% and 39%, respectively, placing him 5th and 10th in terms of pressing effectiveness in the Czech Chance Liga.
Midfielders: Konstantinos Karetsas (17), Giannis Konstantelias (22) and Christos Tzolis (23)
This was the attacking line behind Pavlidis against Scotland. Coincidentally or not, all three players scored in that game. On the left wing, the oldest of the trio and arguably the one closest to becoming a player of relevance for a team aiming for European qualification in a top five league, Christos Tzolis. The former Norwich City player contributed to 28 goals last season for Fortuna Düsseldorf (23 goals and 5 assists) in the 2. Bundesliga. He's already being involved in 13 goal contributions this season.
His Pro League numbers are remarkable: no other winger averages more xG per game (0.37) and only one takes more shots (3.41) and touches the ball in the opposition box more often than Tzolis. When it comes to creativity, only three wingers average more xA per game than him (0.23) and only two of them complete more open-play key passes (1.23).
As we can check on the bars graph, Tzolis ranks 2nd in xG involvement among all players in the league. In fifth place is Konstantinos Karetsas, Greece's crown jewel, who averages an involvement of 0.96 xG per game.
Greece had to battle Belgium for his signature, but the player reportedly did not have much doubt about his choice. At 17, he became the country's youngest-ever goalscorer against Scotland.
Karetsas has participated in 45% of Genk's total minutes this season. A sign of a carefully planned approach to gradually introduce such young player. The minutes he's had on the pitch have allowed him to contribute to 5 goals, with 3 goals and 2 assists. However, his position remains uncertain. His technique and movements suggest that his future could lie as an attacking midfielder or a central offensive player, but given his fragile build (which is typical at his age), it might be better for him to stay away from the center and manage the play out wide, on the right flank.
His influence is undeniable. His 4.17 dribbles per game are the third-highest among all wingers in the league, and his 9.9 ball progressions are the sixth-highest. Karetsas is still too young to predict exactly what he can become, but all signs point to him leading the Greek national team with an iron fist.
Finally, we have the least known of the three, Giannis Konstantelias. While Karetsas spreads his involvement across the pitch, even in the first third, that’s not the case with Konstantelias, who is much more focused on the final third. 56% of his participation (passes and touches) occurs in the final third of the field, compared to Karetsas’ 48%. Additionally, Konstantelias has played 54% of the minutes as an attacking midfielder.
Despite being part of Greece's midfield, he is more of an attacker than a midfielder. If we extrapolate his numbers from the Greek league to the top five leagues and compare them with the 513 midfielders who’ve played over 450 minutes this season, Konstantelias would be in the top 10% in metrics such as shots, xG, completed and attempted dribbles, xA from open play, and passes into the final third. Attacker-like numbers. At 22 years old, it might be time for him to take the next step.
Striker: Stefanos Tzimas (19)
We could easily talk about Vangelis Pavlidis, who's having a good first season in Portugal after sharing Eredivisie's golden boot with Luuk de Jon (both scored 29 goals). Nonetheless, Pavlidis is 26 and discussing him would break the flow of our focus today. He's good, though.
That said, there's a young, up-and-coming striker who's been knocking on the door of the national team for all this season. Also, he's earned himself a move to the Premier League. He's Stefanos Tzimas, former PAOK academy graduate, goalscorer at Nurnberg and soon-to-be Brighton striker. He has already scored 12 goals in his first 2.Bundesliga season.
Apart from that, he's the exact profile of forward top clubs, or top-aiming clubs, are looking for at the moment: tall, strong, powerful, and quick. The Darwin Nuñez, Gyokeres, Same Aghehowa and Osimhem type of forward. Each one unique, but all this players share being extremely quick to run the channels and in behind, and physically great to be used as a focal point for their teams.
This diagram helps us visualize this type of forward, one who averages a considerably high speed and receives many progressive passes towards the box, usually into space. We consider a pass progressive if it advances 10 or more meters towards the opponent's goal.
In Tzimas' profile, we find numerous similarities with Gyokeres. Looking at the radar, they are similar forwards in terms of the primary role of the '9' – scoring goals. Both generate large amounts of xG, take plenty of shots on goal, have good accuracy rates, and their area of influence is the box. However, they also stand out in dribbling and ball progression via carrying the ball because they are powerful and fast and can run with the ball at their feet.
The difference between Tzimas and Gyokeres currently, knowing one is 19 and the other is 26, is that Gyokeres is more involved in the creation of danger (his xA is more than double what Tzimas averages), and his physicality and game understanding are fully developed, which is reflected in his ability to retain the ball in the opponent’s half rather than going on solo runs.
In terms of physicality, the similarities continue. Both have an average speed well above the norm, and they average similar percentages for distances covered in HSR and sprints, meaning high-intensity movements are their go-to runs.
Finally, let's see how these radar stats translate to the pitch in Tzimas' case. Starting with that burst of speed that always gives him the slightest edge.
In this case, he needs that burst of pace because the space is limited and the pass leaves little margin for error. With his first stride, Tzimas already gains an advantage over the defender.
In fact, such a forced shot is a result of the pass, which bounces high, and not of Tzimas, who arrives with punctuality.
In this second case, we see how the Greek forward is paired with the far-sided defender. From there, he first moves vertically, then breaks into space, curving his run to avoid being caught offside. His stride is powerful enough for him to arrive with oxygen on his mind and allow himself that delightful finish.
In today's piece, we’ve analyzed the reality of the Greek national team, which is finally starting to emerge from the footballing anonymity it was cast into. With players who have both present ability and, above all, a lot of future. And with someone like Tzimas, who still needs to fully break down the door.
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