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There are many ways for a team to progress into the opponent's half. If we were to simplify the spectrum of ball progression as much as possible, we would be left with two main options: carrying or passing, if we are referring to the individual, the player, or the long or short pass, if we are referring to the collective, the team.
There exist teams that prefer to quickly launch the ball into the opponent's half and fight for the second ball, and there are teams who prefer to play short passes and create intricate movements starting from their own box. Within those two worlds we would find huge variations in styles of play that would make life very difficult for us. And we don't want that.
Fortunately, today I am going to focus on individual progression, which, although dependent on every team's style of play, allows me to draw up an ordered list of the types of players that emerge depending on how and where they help their team's ball progression through the field.
Let's refine our idea a little. We are going to focus on central progression. So we have chosen the three positions that have the most influence on the center of the pitch: the holding midfielder ('6'), the interior ('8') and the attacking midfielder ('10').
We’ve generated three scatter-plots for each of Europe’s top five leagues by crossing two different metrics in each case.
For the first one we’ve mixed tackles and ball progression: we will make a first differentiation between those midfielders (by this term I mean the three profiles we have selected) who are mainly focused on ball-winning and defensive work, those whose roles are related with ball-progression and those who are bit of both. Or neither of both.
For the second one, we’ve crossed ball retention (%) and xT generated from open play. In this way we will be able to look at players who mix safe and risky play, those who choose only one of these options and those who don’t risk the ball and aren't safe in their passing.
And last, we’ve gone for a mix of ball-progression metrics: ball progression by carrying and ball progression by passing. We will check which players prefer to progress by passing the ball or by carrying it.
Ball progression in Serie A
The most telling thing in this first scatter plot is the existing significant distance between Hakan Calhanoglu and the rest of Serie A midfielder. His reconversion into a defensive specialist, without diminishing his attacking ability, is extraordinary. No midfielder in Serie A averages more tackles per game and only Locatelli completes more ball progressions. Calhanoglu impact on Inter performances is huge. Without him this season they’ve averaged 0.98 xG against per game. A negative difference of 0.15 xG compared to when he’s on the field.
Another player, in this case a younger one, who will appear repeatedly in these graphs is Nicolo Fagioli. The Italian combines defensive and attacking capacity, but if we also look at the graph which crosses ball retention with threat generation, we can see how the Italian is also able to combine both. He averages 92% of ball retention and 0.25 xT per game. He has only played 501 minutes, but at the age of 23 he is a player to be wary of.
It is always interesting to look diagonally at this chart. If you look at the bottom right corner, you will find attackers (De Ketelaere, Lookman, Thauvin) who have at various times played as offensive midfielders. These are players who, on average, have a low ball retention rate, but who are very valuable to their teams because they are responsible for a high percentage of their dangerous play. They generate 16%, 19% and 27% respectively of the xT of their teams.
This is the quintessential chart for measuring individual ball progression. It confirms what we already knew: that Calhanoglu and Locatelli are the most advanced players in the league and that Fagioli has unlimited potential. But it also highlights the importance of certain players. Take Lookman. Before we saw he was one of the most dangerous players, we now know that the danger he creates by getting the ball into more dangerous areas is generated by carrying the ball and not by passing. In fact, he averages the highest number of progressive carries per game out of all midfielders/attacking midfielders in the league.
In the bottom right corner we find the passers, the ones who move their teams forward through delivering the ball. Among them are Maximo Perrone and Billy Gilmour. One is owned by Guardiola's Manchester City and the other made his Chelsea debut under Maurizio Sarri. Unsurprisingly, they are among the league's best passers.
Ball progression in LaLiga
Alongside players from Madrid and Barcelona, including Marc Casado for his huge number of tackles per game and Tchouameni for his huge number of progressions per game, there are three men who stand out in LaLiga for their offensive and defensive qualities: Hugo Sotelo (2003), Dario Essugo (2005) and Ilaix Moriba (2003). Sotelo averages the third most passes per game in LaLiga, Essugo the seventh most recoveries and Moriba the second most aggressive actions (defensive actions made within two seconds of the team losing possession).
Sotelo also looks like a midfielder capable of retaining possession while generating threat in favour of his team. An old rocker, and Ballon D’Or winner, like Modric is the prominent player in this scatter plot. At the other end of the spectrum, we've highlight Beñat Turrientes, Real Sociedad's promising defensive midfielder, who is very good at keeping the ball, but not very threatening.
The Croatian is the league leader in progression by carrying, while his team-mate Tchouameni is the league leader in progression by passing. In the top right corner, two Sevilla players are among those who combine both types of progression best: Albert Sambi Lokonga and Lucien Agoume, who seem to have adapted well to García-Pimienta's proactive style.
Ball progression in Bundesliga
Two young players stand out above the rest in the Bundesliga: Aleksandar Pavlovic is, along with Xhaka, the Bundesliga's midfielder with the most ball progressions and Rocco Reitz the one who averages the most tackles per game, with a success rate of 77.3%, the 14th best figure among the 57 Bundesliga midfielders.
Amongst the players who averages lots of ball progression for their teams but are not consistently putting their foot in the door are Romano Schmid, Angelo Stiller and Enzo Millot. Schmid averages the fourth highest number of open play key passes in the Bundesliga, Stiller has the second highest percentage of passes completed in the final third and Millot has the fourth highest ball retention rate in the opposition half.
Schimd differs from the other two players in that his ball retention rate is below average. On the other hand, his xT figures are among the best in the league. This is because Millot and Stiller are more focused on playmaking and getting their team into the opposition's half, while Schimd is an attacker focused on being a difference-maker.
In this other scatterplot, we continue to see the differences that exist between these three players. Romano Schmid, like Stiller, excels in both areas, both carrying and passing the ball. But Stiller is closer to the passing zone and Schmid is closer to the carrying zone. There are more similarities between Rocco Reitz and Stiller in terms of the way they move the ball forward, little carrying and a lot of passing, than between Stiller and Schimd.
Ball progression in Ligue 1
This image could explain PSG's undisputed dominance in Ligue 1 24/25. And yet, it is closer than you might think. PSG's four main midfielders lead the way, combining defensive prowess with progressive ability. Teji Savanier remains one of the best players in Ligue 1 at getting the ball forward, but his defensive work has always been limited.
Someone on the opposite end of the spectrum is Yassin Belkhdim. His 4.13 tackles and 1.2 interceptions per game rank 7th and 12th respectively. But that's it... and little else. Mind you, he is only 22 years old and has only played 583 minutes in Ligue 1.
Let's move on to the ball retention and threat graph, as one of the most entertaining players on the European scene is about to appear: Rayan Cherki, who generates a value of 0.5 xT per game, on par with the best Kevin de Bruyne, while also keeping an 88% ball retention rate. With the winter transfer window approaching and Olympique Lyon's financial problems, he could be a player to pick up at a bargain price.
In the area of players who take few risks and play safe football, we find Valentin Atangana (2005), who has a very promising profile. He possesses a rare blend of four characteristics for his age: he is almost infallible in passing (90.6% success rate), completes 1.28 dribbles per game (58th out of 514 midfielders in the big five leagues), averages 2.78 tackles and is only beaten in 14.9% of his attempted tackles. A profile to watch for.
In terms of ball progression, we see that several U24 players stand out on both sides of the graph: in progressions by carrying, Yann Gboho stands out with an average of 6.49 touches in the opposition box per game, sixth best among wingers and third best among midfielders, while Maghnes Akliouche has 4 goals and 2 assists in all competitions for Monaco.
In the opposite corner, in terms of ball progressions by passing, another Monaco player stands out among the younger players, in this case Lamine Camara, who is the third midfielder in Ligue 1 with the most long passes made per game (4.54) and the eleventh with the most passes made per game (41.5).
Ball progression in the Premier League
In the Premier League, Mateo Kovacic is slightly above average in tackles and well above average in ball possession. Young players who combine the two include Adam Wharton and Ryan Gravenberch. Wharton is responsible for 15% of Crystal Palace's ball progressions in the final third (3rd best in the league) and Gravenberch has the 4th best tackled/was dribbled percentage (he wins 1.7 out of every 10 tackles he attempts).
Ugarte averages the most tackles in the Premier League, but still lags behind in terms of possession. In the opposite corner, Youri Tielemans is helping Aston Villa progress, but his defensive numbers could be improved.
We've already talked about Adam Wharton, a player with huge defensive and attacking capabilities, but at 20 years of age he still struggles to decide when to take risks and when not to. If he can maintain his xT numbers and improve his ball retention, he will be a multi-million pound/euro player. Depending on who pays, because there will be suitors.
You only have to look at the gap between him and the rest of the pack to see who is, and has been, the Premier League's GOAT in recent years. Kevin de Bruyne, even at 80% of his physical capacity, is by far the most decisive midfielder in the league.
Another surprise of the season has been Dejan Kulusevski's move to a more central role, away from the right wing where he played last season. The move has served him well: he is third among Premier League midfielders in chances created, key passes made and xA from open play per game. He is also the 4th midfielder with the most touches in the opposition box per game.
He is one of the most progressive midfielders in the Premier League when it comes to carrying forward. In the opposite corner is his team-mate James Maddison, who, like Martin Odegaard at Arsenal, drives Tottenham forward with his passing. In the middle of the spectrum, Kovacic, Gravenberch, Wharton and De Bruyne return to the fore and are joined by Emile Smith Rowe, who has been reborn at Fulham after a difficult few years at Arsenal.
