Bundesliga is all but over after Kimmich’s goal on the final matchday increased the gap between Bayern and their challengers. If we consider the numbers for the 2019/20 season, it’s quite surprising that the race for the Bundesliga is still alive at this stage. Borussia Dortmund have remained in contention for a title that seemed a long way off in view of the expected goals generated by Favre’s team.
To assess Borussia Dortmund’s ability to score goals, we have to compare the club with the rest of Europe’s most successful attacking systems: if we use the top five leagues, in the top 10 teams with the most goals (excluding penalties) per game, Borussia Dortmund are by far the best on finishing chances. The table below shows the difference between goals scored and expected goals with Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona being the only clubs to improve their prediction figures.
If we look at who Borussia Dortmund’s top players are in this regard, we understand how the fight for the Bundesliga has lasted so long: Favre’s top five league scorers – excluding penalties – are Sancho (14 goals in 6.9 xG); Haaland (10 goals in 5.2 xG); Reus (10 goals in 8.8 xG); Guerreiro (8 goals in 3.8 xG); and Hazard (6 goals in 4.7 XG). These figures not only confirm Jadon Sancho’s growth as a killer, but also show that Borussia Dortmund are an anomaly in finishing and that the race for the league title had been shorter.
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