Which Bundesliga teams were overperforming before the halt?

Which Bundesliga teams were overperforming before the halt?

The Bundesliga will be back this Saturday after more than two months of interruption due to the coronavirus. Although it will do so without people in the stands, the German league will be the first of Europe’s top five leagues to resume and at Driblab we wanted to take a look at how their teams were performing before the break. Who had taken more points than they had generated according to their expected goals (xG) sum and the sum of their rivals?

This scatter plot shows all the teams in the major leagues, positioned as they mark two axes: the points they carry and their expected points (xP); that is, those they should carry according to what they have generated in attack and what they have conceded in defence in terms of xG. Bayern has clearly been the most productive team in terms of volume, although they have scored two points less (55) than expected (57.4). Not far behind, however, are Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund, who, as we shall see below, have made the most of their chances. They are followed closely by Leverkusen and Monchengladbach, who are responding very well in the boxes, especially at defensively. Marco Rose‘s team has 49 points with a value of only 40.6 expected.

On the other hand, Eintracht is the least efficient team; it is in twelfth place with a sum of 39.2 xP but only 28 added. This is partly because it concedes so many goals. Also, Wolfsburg and Werder Bremen should be more profitable, as they are having a bad season but should have scored more points. Above his actual performance is Freiburg, who has conceded only 34 goals (excluding penalties) having conceded a significant number of chances (57 xG), or Schalke.

Having great players makes it easier to be effective in the decisive areas of the field, the two boxes. Borussia Dortmund is lucky to have them. And that’s why they’ve scored 51 points with only 43.6 expected. As we can see in this picture, Marco Reus and Jadon Sancho are being very decisive when they reach the final metres. Especially the English winger, who has scored 14 goals in shooting situations that make a sum of 6.8 xG. We will be watching how both players finish the season.

We are Driblab, a consultancy specialized in the statistical analysis of players and teams; our work is focused on advising and minimizing risk in professional football decision-making in areas related to talent detection and footballer evaluations. Our database has more than 130,000 players from more than 120 competitions, covering information from all over the world. Here you can learn more about how we work and what we offer.

Newsletter Alert!

Sign up for our newsletter to get awesome Driblab content!

You have Successfully Subscribed!